China lost it’s America-sized Eastern Lands to Tsarist Russia in the 1800’s. A huge emotional blow for the nation every Chinese citizen knows. It contributed directly to the overthrow of the government. This “shame” is taught to every child in the country today. The current Chinese ruler (Xi) is an absolute with more power than even Mao had. He has made it clear he wants the lands back (same for Taiwan). Perhaps China is not willing to take on the weakened, fully distracted but nuclear-armed Russia just yet. That may come later.

Maybe the “Leading Groups” in Beijing (very powerful and flexible cross-departmental think tanks we do not have) have a better short-term solution with better return on investment. Mongolia and Kazakhstan are on China’s borders. They are the physical buffer between China and Russia. They have a COMBINED population no bigger than the greater New York City area. Together, their land area is 43% the size of China. Their combined military has only 145,000 folks and budget of $7.7 billion. For comparison, Canada’s military budget is four times as big. The New York City school system is half as big.

These two nations have a lower population density than the Adirondack Park. They are also rich in natural resources just like China’s lost territories from the 1800s. The oil in Kazakhstan alone would free China from imports (and sanctions on oil imports). The extra room would give China’s people (and Xi) the space they crave. With the kind of massive water/irrigation projects China has done recently, both nation’s land can become bread-baskets for China. Food and oil: the two major physical weaknesses for China.

In 1969, China and Russia fought a bitter war. Prior to Putin’s invasion of the Ukraine, China’s leaders were satisfied to allow these two nations to be the physical buffer between China and Russia. Now that Putin has demonstrated he is willing to invade and try to conquer an entire physically large nation (Ukraine: with much bigger military and population that the combined Mongolia-Kazakhstan) the calculus in Beijing may have shifted. Beijing may ask: if thrown out of Ukraine, will Putin turn on Mongolia-Kazakhstan as Sadam turned on Kuwait after loosing to Iran? If Putin wins, will Mongolia and Kazakhstan be next like Stalin and Hitler did?

If China preemptively invaded both nations, how would the world respond? The West is already maxed out supplying Ukraine. With the West and the world so deeply addicted to stuff from China … perhaps a few symbolic sanctions? The Muslim Uyghurs are being made to “disappear” by Xi just like the Tibetans. We, in the West, have done nothing because we can’t. Of 49 Muslim nations, are any standing up to China for this? No. They really can’t either.

Canada has a patriotic “Elbows up” response to America’s tariffs. Canada has done zero in response to four Canadian citizens being executed by the Chinese government weeks ago. There is really nothing they can do.

Beijing has noted the lack of response from Muslim nations and the West. It seems no one wants to take on China no matter what the issue.

If China invaded Taiwan, what would the return on investment be? It would be actually very poor. Taiwan’s population is the same as Mongolia-Kazakhstan but on a densely populated island with no resources. If the chip foundries are destroyed in a war (likely), what value is the “conquest?” True, the whole “Conquer Taiwan” scenario might be real. Or the real action might be 180 degrees in the opposite direction. No one out side of Xi and the Leading Groups knows.

“Mongolia-Kazakhstan” scenario, if it occurs, is obviously bad news for America. We will have to go toe-to-toe with them eventually at this rate. But China already has it’s work cut out trying to pacify Hong Kong, Tibet, Xi’an, etc. Thus, China does not want to add America’s 330 million rambunctious, self absorbed, difficult to control, non-obedient people. China rather just eliminate us. Exterminate us. Have us “out of the way.” If America is gone, then everyone else will eventually fall in line. Russia, Iran and North Korea are allies of China. Together they are the “Gang of Four.” Who would be left and willing/able to fight back? India? Brazil? Philippines? Germany? A more powerful China freed of being reliant on oil since Kazakhstan is loaded with it, and freed of being reliant on foods due to huge newly irrigated farm lands in a conquered Mongolia-Kazakhstan is what our children will face if this scenario occurs.

If it happens, how would this affect us short-term here in the Tri-Lakes? Just imagine if the power grid went down. We don’t make those monster transformers used by the power companies. Only China does. That’s just one soft spot we have. The list of vulnerabilities we have here if America seriously butts heads with China is extensive.

Perhaps our leaders should take this “Mongolia-Kazakhstan” scenario into consideration. You think the “COVID” drama five years ago was disruptive? This would be off the charts for us in the Tri-Lakes.

Don’t expect Xi to run his mouth and be a clown in front of cameras as we have done. China is not going to send it’s intentions on a “Signal” app. To date there is not a single public thing I’ve read to suggest this scenario might happen. But, going forward, if there appears any hint this might seriously considered by Beijing, it might be wise to think about contingencies before hand.

Just a thought.

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Ira Weinberg lives in Saranac Lake.