If insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results, North Country Democrats must be out of their minds.

Beginning in 2014, Democrats have run five candidates against Elise Stefanik in New York’s 21st Congressional District. All of them either were moderates or, if at all progressive in their outlook, ran toward the ideological center — in other words, to the Right; took relatively vague or shallow positions on key issues; weren’t from the district or hadn’t lived here full-time for long; or were some combination of the above.

It’s no surprise then that all five candidates lost, in six different elections, with none of them winning as much as 43% of the vote. While some Democrats believe the anticipated special election — assuming Trump’s nomination of Stefanik to be U.N. ambassador becomes a reality — represents the party’s best opportunity to occupy the seat since Bill Owens — the first Democrat elected to Congress in the region since the mid-to-late 1800s, who unceremoniously announced his retirement in January 2014 — the candidate selected by the 15 Democratic county chairs, Blake Gendebien, will be at a significant disadvantage compared to his Republican opponent, especially in terms of voter registration.

Of the 523,479 registered voters in NY-21 as of Nov. 1, 2024, 214,882 (41%) were Republicans, 138,783 (27%) Democrats and 169,814 (32%) third party or independent.

Furthermore, the region’s Democratic Party is largely dysfunctional. Its county committees are poor at recruiting candidates, raising campaign funds and electing the relatively few Democrats brave enough to run. In November 2023 in Essex County, for example, with around 100 local/county offices up for election, Democrats contested 14 of them. In 2024, of the seven state Senate/Assembly races in the region, Republicans went unchallenged by a Democrat in six.

Because the county committees do such a poor job, the Democratic bench is thin. While the 15 NY-21 Republican chairs have several elected Republicans to consider, of the 10 individuals the Democratic chairs reportedly had to choose from, only one ever held elective office and only two ever ran for any office.

While the early selection of Gendebien by the Democratic chairs will allow him more time to become known, seek more money than the six figures or more that his campaign has already reportedly raised and reach as many voters as possible, it also gives the Republicans more time to attack him without a Republican nominee to defend — including on Gendebien’s disparagement of the North Country workforce in a 2013 published interview.

As of Feb. 26, 2025, there were zero positions on any issues posted on his campaign website — only biographical info; photos of Blake, his attractive family and his dairy farm; and such platitudes under “Why I’m Running” as “To Work Hard … Help Our Neighbors … Deliver Results.”

One has to wonder whether the Democratic chairs — who, remember, do a poor job of raising money of their own — chose the seemingly centrist Gendebien based largely on his ability to “self-fund.” Ay, there’s the rub: we’ve seen this movie before.

In 2014, after Owens did a disservice to the party by pulling out only 10 months before the general election, Dems had to scramble to find a replacement. Their choice, documentary filmmaker Aaron Woolf, was a first-time candidate and, while he had roots as a seasonal resident of the Adirondacks, still spent time running a business in Brooklyn. But he could self-fund.

His campaign was run largely by people from outside the district, and it showed. While I did not know Aaron at the time, I’ve gotten to know him since and consider him a progressive.

However, in the campaign, he was encouraged to run toward the center and his positions on the issues seemed relatively vague.

Woolf was further hampered by the Green Party candidacy of Matt Funiciello. While added together, their vote percentages (34% and 11%, respectively) fell well short of Stefanik’s 55%, Funiciello’s specific progressive positions — when considered alongside Woolf’s and Stefanik’s — made Aaron look like a mushy moderate in the middle.

Two years later, the Dems ran Mike Derrick, a native of Clinton County and West Point grad. But he had spent most of his adult life outside of the district serving in the military, and his candidacy seemed mainly focused on the argument that Stefanik was not from the district (certainly true) and Derrick was. With Funiciello again in the race, but this time only pulling around 5% of the vote, Derrick lost with 30% to Stefanik’s 65%.

2018 saw an active Democratic primary race with five viable candidates. St. Lawrence County Legislator Tedra Cobb — an actual long-time, full-time resident of the district — won the primary with more than 55% of the vote. It’s perhaps not a coincidence that the year with the most active primary resulted in the highest percentage general-election vote for a Democrat challenging Stefanik (42.4%); but hopes of a Cobb victory were hurt by her appearing inauthentic on the gun issue and too moderate on healthcare.

Cobb ran again in 2020 but did slightly worse percentage-wise (41.1%), even while raising more than $5.6 million. In 2022, Matt Castelli, a former CIA employee who was new to NY-21, emphasized his centrist bonafides by creating a second ballot line under the “Moderate Party.” Despite raising more than $2.5 million and running TV commercials, he lost to Stefanik 59.1% to 40.8%. Castelli’s vague, if moderate, positions on the issues didn’t help.

The same was true for 2024 candidate Paula Collins, a cannabis attorney from New York City brand-new to the district. She started campaigning late in the process; but with low name-recognition and raising less than $150,000, Collins still received 38% of the vote — not far off what Cobb and Castelli achieved with lots more money and TV presence.

These results suggest there’s a Democratic voter base of around 40% and that the way to build on it is opposite to what Democrats have done in the past six elections — a solution I will elaborate on in a future commentary.

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Fred Balzac has been involved in North Country politics since 1992. He lives in Saranac Lake.