President Donald J. Trump’s sudden reversal on his decision to nominate Rep. Elise M. Stefanik to be the next U.S. ambassador to the United Nations on Thursday sent shockwaves across the political world that were felt in Washington, D.C., and Stefanik’s rural upstate district.

Stefanik, who was the first nominee announced by the Trump administration after the November election, was on track to be confirmed as ambassador as soon as April 2.

The move would have set in motion a three-month special election in the north country. But citing fears over the slim Republican majority in the House, Trump on Thursday announced he had asked the congresswoman to step back from the nomination and stay as a reliable Republican vote in the lower chamber.

The move cut off the ramp-up to what was expected to be a contentious, well-funded and nationally watched contest to fill New York’s 21st Congressional District seat. Democrats had already selected nominee Blake Gendebien, a dairy farmer in his 40s from Gouverneur who set up a campaign, raised more than $2.5 million and weathered early Republican attacks.

Republicans were moving much more slowly. The county party chairs tasked with selecting the GOP nominee moved through nearly 20 options, settling on four but pledging to make no further moves until Stefanik vacated her seat.

Meanwhile, a conservative businessman and political newcomer from the Mohawk Valley, Anthony Constantino, was threatening a third-party run if he wasn’t the GOP pick.

On Monday the Conservative Party of New York, which frequently works with Republicans, endorsed state Sen. Daniel G. Stec, R-Queensbury, while also saying they’d be OK with Liz Joy or Assemblyman Chris Tague, R-Schoharie.

While those three candidates were favorites among the 15 GOP chairs in NY-21, party sources in Washington said that concerns over Stec’s moderate history in the statehouse and early tepid reaction to Trump in 2016 were worrying. Combined with a conservative third-party challenger, there were concerns that the Republican vote would split between Stec and Constantino, and the relatively moderate Gendebien would come out on top.

The last Democrat to represent the North Country won the seat in a similar situation; in 2009, the Republican and a third-party conservative split the vote, and Rep. Bill Owens took the seat.

But even as concerns mounted over the structure of the race in NY-21, the Republican pollster GrayHouse released a poll finding that a generic Republican candidate had real advantages in the district.

The poll only reached 400 people across the 15 counties in the district, but found that before the respondents were made familiar with Gendebien, they preferred a Republican 52% versus 35% for Gendebien. They found that Trump has an ongoing positive image among NY-21 voters, with a net positive rating of 16%.

Once the poll respondents were read some controversial comments Gendebien made in an unearthed interview from 2013, respondents moved to prefer a Republican by 56% to Gendebien’s 31% — and he even lost some steam among registered Democrats. The whole survey has a margin of error of 5% in either direction.

Gendebien said in a statement shared Thursday afternoon that he is committed to sticking in the race for the 2026 general election.

“I’m committed to representing the community that raised me, regardless of when that election is,” Gendebien said.

But his operation also laid off some ground-level staff, indicating his campaign may be headed into a rest mode ahead of the real campaign season that will start next year.

It’s not clear who his competition will be for the party nod, as it will be a regular election and Gendebien will have to go through the primary process. At least one other Democrat who sought the nomination for the special election said they’re mulling a run.

Dylan Hewitt, a former deputy assistant U.S. trade representative in the Biden White House and a south Glens Falls native, raised more than $100,000 in 24 hours in February, but was told he wouldn’t be the pick shortly afterward.

Now, he’ll have another shot at the nomination that won’t require the support of the county chairs who rejected him.

“Some are saying we’re due for another Tea Party moment,” he said in a statement Thursday. “I say we’re due for a Guarantee Party moment — one that fights to guarantee economic security, health care, American jobs, and opportunity for our children. I’ll be watching very closely to see whether there’s anyone in this race who’s ready to meet that moment.”

On the Republican side, things are equally as unclear. Stefanik is the representative, and has already broken her 2014 promise to stick to only five terms in office. She could run for another term if she wanted to, but Trump on Thursday said he was looking to welcome her into his administration at a later date.

In a conversation with the Watertown Daily Times late Friday, Constantino didn’t discount a run in 2026. He has got the personal funds to self-finance a campaign, and he has pushed hard to get public attention and voter support as he fought to get the GOP nod in the special election.

“I was the best pick, I did a lot to demonstrate that,” he said.

“I entered politics pretty fast and I’m still learning, I want to continue learning and I’ll be looking for other opportunities to be helpful,” he said.

Constantino has floated standing up an operation to help elect Republicans in New York, but he said on Friday that ultimately he prefers to do things himself.

“If I know I’m the best person to do something, why wouldn’t I do it?,” he said.

Stefanik’s near-term role in Congress remains unclear as well. Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., have said she will immediately return to the House leadership table. Johnson is likely to create a brand new role for her rather than kick a sitting leadership member out, which may leave her job less clearly defined. For the past few years, Stefanik has been the House GOP Conference leader, the third most senior seat when Republicans are in the minority, and the fourth most senior seat when they’re in the majority. Any role she takes on now would necessarily be lower down that totem pole.

And she also did not seek a committee seat this year, resigning her spots on the House Armed Services and House Intelligence committees among others. A Stefanik spokesperson told the Watertown Daily Times late on Friday night that the Congresswoman would be re-seated on the House Armed Services and Education and Labor Committees, and would maintain her seniority levels and place in line for a committee chair seat.

Stefanik herself has not answered questions from the Watertown Daily Times regarding her future, but in an interview on Fox News Thursday night, she said she made the move to be a team player and help protect the Trump agenda in a tightly divided House.

“I have been proud to be a team player — the president knows that. He and I had multiple conversations today, and we are committed to delivering results on behalf of the American people,” she said to Fox News host Kayleigh McEnany.

Stefanik didn’t directly address questions over the next steps for her role in Congress or a potential nomination to a different role in the Trump White House.