The West Branch AuSable River is seen near the Whiteface Mountain ski resort in Wilmington Sunday morning. Water levels are expected to peak around noon today between minor and moderate flood stage for portions of the river. (Enterprise photo — Chris Gaige)

WILMINGTON — A warm weekend coupled with rainfall late Sunday may lead to flooding today along some area rivers.

The National Weather Service’s Burlington, Vermont office, which serves the Tri-Lakes area, issued a flood watch for Franklin, Essex and Clinton counties through 8 p.m. today. The flood watch primarily concerns low-lying and traditionally flood-prone areas near or along rivers, creeks and streams.

Meteorologists said the river flood potential is primarily driven by excessive runoff from snowmelt, along with between 0.3 and 1 inch of rainfall, which is more prone to drain directly into rivers now than during the warmer months, when growing vegetation absorbs more rain, serving as a buffer from flooding.

Additionally, rainfall this time of year serves as an accelerant to snowmelt, which occurs at a faster clip when the snowpack is introduced to rainfall versus when the air — at an equivalent ambient temperature — is dry, which tends to result in a slower melting rate.

Tyler Danzig, a meteorologist with NWS Burlington, said that of the local rivers, the office is most concerned with the East Branch AuSable River. He expected it to reach a minor flood stage before daybreak today and continue rising throughout the morning.

Danzig said the river is forecast to crest around noon today. Its height is forecasted to peak between 8.5 and 8.9 feet — at its AuSable Forks river gauge located about half of a mile above the confluence with the West Branch AuSable River — which is considered minor flooding.

One good sign, Danzig said, is that ice jams are not expected to be prevalent today. Danzig cited warm temperatures over the past several days, paired with no precipitation, melting river ice and moving it downstream gradually, mitigating the risk of it blocking up and creating an ice jam.

he said.

Danzig added that there is still a risk of an isolated ice jam, especially in smaller area creeks and streams that feed into the larger rivers.

Ice jam flooding occurs when ice that was previously frozen over a river breaks up and is pushed downstream but gets caught up on something. This often occurs along sharp bends or areas where a river is narrow — naturally or by a manmade structure, such as a bridge or overpass.

The chunks of ice form a dam, further obstructing chunks flowing in from further upriver, creating a self-enforcing feedback loop: the more ice that comes through, the thicker the wall gets. This also blocks some of the water flowing through, causing river levels to rise behind the ice dam, potentially creating flood in certain areas upstream of the jam.

Sunday’s rain is associated with a storm that wreaked havoc on other parts of the nation, bringing devastating, hurricane-force winds and tornados to parts of the southern Plains and Southeast. The severe weather had killed 37 people across six states as of press time Sunday evening, according to The Associated Press.

Aside from the river flooding concerns, Danzig said none of those severe weather impacts are predicted to occur locally.

he said.

River flow levels are forecasted to recede throughout the afternoon and evening as drier weather moves in. After today, temperatures are forecast to remain well above their climatological normals for this time of year on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The next weather system, a cold front, is forecast to sweep through the area on Thursday, bringing rainfall and cooling temperatures closer to normal for the weekend. Thursday’s rain is not expected to pose widespread flooding concerns, given that a significant amount of the winter snowpack will have melted already.