“We have some pretty dangerous conditions,” said Josh Worth, a local avalanche expert.

Worth has taught avalanche safety and educational courses since 2006. He spent much of his life as a ski patroller and safety manager at Mammoth Mountain, a ski resort on the California side of the Sierra Nevada mountains.

It’s not just the amount of snow, but how it’s fallen this season that’s a problem. Worth said the crux of the issue arises from a layer of weak, unstable snow near the bottom of the snowpack, that has been unable to work itself out for much of this winter. One of the culprits to that, he said, was a series of relatively minor — but frequently occurring — snowfall events this season thatkept adding on top of, but not breaking down the unstable snow, which would have reduced the avalanche threat.

“It’s basically been insulated and just allowed to sit there,” he said. “That’s kind of the dragon lurking beneath the surface.”

He said that Adirondack winters normally come with at least one decent thaw — colloquially known as the January Thaw, but can happen in February as well — that acts to knock down weaker layers of snow underneath them. There has been no such thaw this winter.

Worth said that with the insulating layer in much of the snowpack acting as a cushion, this weekend’s big snow is unable to crush down the weaker underlayer. Instead, it compounds the risk by adding more stress to the deep snowpack.

–

Piling up

–

Most areas throughout the Tri-Lakes picked up between 11 and 15 inches of snow over the holiday weekend, according to observations posted by the National Weather Service’s Burlington, Vermont office, which serves the Tri-Lakes region.

Accumulations were even greater in the High Peaks and surrounding backcountry slopes. There, elevated mountain slopes acted to essentially squeeze additional moisture out of the atmosphere as the air was forced to rise as it blew over the mountains. The rising cooled the air, decreasing the amount of moisture it could hold and ultimately resulting in more snow falling on the ground there — a process known as upsloping in meteorology.

Upsloping is not unique to Sunday’s storm. The phenomenon is commonplace for most storms that track over the Adirondack mountains, as air rises from lower elevations that surround the mountains. Over the winter season, this has led to a staggering departure in snow depth in the mountains as compared to the population centers throughout the Tri-Lakes.

This phenomenon, combined with no thaws locally since the beginning of the year, has contributed to a massive snowpack this season, according to historical data.

While the snow is certainly deep in the populated areas locally — between 2 and 3 feet generally — it’s significantly more so in the mountains with elevations above 3,000 feet often more than doubling those snowpack numbers. For instance, the University at Albany’s Atmospheric Sciences Research Center reported a snow depth of 67 inches — taken on Thursday and not factoring in the heavy weekend accumulations — at its measuring location along the Whiteface Mountain Veteran’s Memorial Highway at an elevation of 4,400 feet. While a post-storm measurement has not been reported yet, the Whiteface Mountain Ski Resort reported receiving 18 inches of new snow on Sunday.

Other locations in the region show a historical season. The Mount Mansfield snow stake, situated on Vermont’s highest peak and located about 50 miles east of Whiteface Mountain, has been measuring snow depth at the same 3,900 feet location nearly continuously beginning in 1954.

The latest data from there provided by the NWS Burlington office, as of 5:42 p.m. Sunday reports a snow depth of 92 inches. This greatly exceeds the average for that location at this point in the season of 61 inches. To date, only four seasons have had greater snow depths by this point in the winter, while 65 have had lesser amounts, according to data analysis posted by Matt Parrilla, a Vermont-based software and map developer. For more information — including a chart that compares each season’s snowpack at that location, visit tinyurl.com/m74ajnt9.

While the weather conditions and subsequent snowpack on Mount Mansfield are not a perfect comparison to the Adirondacks — with their respective locations being far enough away from each other to yield differing impacts from storm systems — their relatively similar climatological regions offer a general idea of how historically snowy this winter has been locally, as compared to the past several decades.

–

Where the danger lies

–

Worth said that most avalanches tend to occur on north and east-facing slopes in the Adirondacks. He said there are a variety of orographic factors for this. Additionally, northern slopes tend to see less sunlight, limiting the amount of snow melt and stabilizing that comes as a result. Eastern slopes — while they see more sunlight than northern slopes — get their maximum amount of sun while the temperature is generally colder, during the mornings.

Eastern slopes also typically to get a greater wind load, meaning that the breeze — which is predominately blowing out of the west in the Adirondacks — tends to move and re-deposit snow that has already fallen from western slopes to eastern slopes, adding more pressure.

Worth also said that most avalanches in the Adirondacks tend to occur in pre-formed slide areas, which he said typically form from mudslides and other erosion during the warmer months. Over time, vegetation regrowth can occur, mitigating the risk.

The state Department of Environmental Conservation’s avalanche safety website adds that 90% of avalanches occur on terrain angles between 30 and 45 degrees. Worth noted that this does not make other terrain — both in terms of directionality and pitch — immune from avalanches.

“There’s always an element of risk,” Worth said. “There’s no such thing as a safe snowpack. There’s always a level of uncertainty — it’s what makes it a tough science. You can never be 100% sure. We don’t understand it enough at this point yet.”

–

Dearth of resources

–

Worth said that unfortunately, there have not been as many resources dedicated to avalanche research and forecasting in the Adirondacks as there should be. He urged people to advocate for change to their state and federal governments.

“Talk to your representatives about getting us the money to make a site so everyone can have it daily,” he said. “There are people out there who have been working on it, but public pressure will help.”

The area does not have a professional avalanche forecasting center — the closest one being the Mount Washington Avalanche Center, which covers the White Mountains in New Hampshire. Worth was blunt in describing the limited options people currently have when it comes to getting an avalanche forecast for the Adirondacks.

“Right now, unfortunately, the best thing you can do is pay attention to the weather daily on your own,” he said. “And cross-reference that with what’s going on in New Hampshire because they’re putting out a daily avalanche forecast.”

Worth said there has been an effort to develop a more professionally dedicated forecast locally, adding that he collaborates with the Atmospheric Sciences Research Center and the state Department of Environmental Conservation to try to establish a more robust avalanche forecasting system for the Adirondacks.

In 2022, the Adirondack Community Avalanche Project was established as a way for people to post observations about the latest backcountry conditions and raise awareness about avalanche risks in the area while doing so. More information can be found on its website at adkavy.org.

While Worth said that while local reports are helpful and should be consulted, going off of those alone before venturing out is not sufficient, as there is not a high enough volume of posts at the moment to establish a clear picture across the area of what conditions could present.

–

Steps to saying safe out there

–

Worth emphasized that there is risk inherent whenever recreating in the backcountry. While it can never be eliminated, he said people should always bring the right gear — and the right mindset.

“They have to have an avalanche shovel, avalanche probe and avalanche beacon,” he said. “Important with having the gear is having the education and the practice to be able to use that gear effectively. And to make sure that not only they have it, but their partners have it too.”

Recreating with people who are knowledgeable on the dangers of avalanches — and ensuring that everyone has that knowledge — is paramount, according to Worth.

“The reality is that if you make the mistake, that means you get buried,” he said. “So you better make sure your partners know how to dig you out.”

For more information on avalanche safety from the DEC, visit tinyurl.com/2cfv2ydp.