SARANAC LAKE — A potent storm will deliver steady and, at times, heavy rainfall to the Tri-Lakes today and tonight, with river and flash flooding possible.

A flood watch is in effect for Essex County for this afternoon through Thursday morning. It was issued by the National Weather Service’s Burlington, Vermont office, which serves northern New York. Meteorologists are concerned that excessive rainfall, along with melting snow from several storms last week may result “in (the) flooding of rivers, creeks, streams and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.”

A storm total of between 1 and 2 inches of rain is expected throughout the Tri-Lakes area by Thursday morning, according to the NWS. In general, lesser totals are expected across northern and western portions of the Tri-Lakes area, with the highest totals forecast for the High Peaks and areas east of Lake Placid, according to Eric Myskowski, a meteorologist with the NWS’s Burlington office.

“The heaviest rain is tomorrow afternoon into the evening,” he said. The storm’s center — and heaviest rainfall totals — are projected to track just east of the local area, with rainfall totals between 2 and 3 inches expected across portions of Vermont.

The NWS forecasts that the East Branch of the AuSable River near AuSable Forks will reach flood stage this evening. They forecast the river to crest at 8.7 feet at 1 a.m. Thursday. The flood stage for the river at that location is considered anything above 7 feet, with river flooding expected to begin around 8 p.m. tonight and cease around 1 p.m. Thursday.

Smaller streams throughout the area, which are more responsive to precipitation and snowmelt are expected to rise — as well as fall — earlier. Mykowski said the steep terrain throughout Essex County can enhance flood risks.

“The terrain, being steeper in eastern Essex County, it’s easier to get flash flooding and river flooding just based on the characteristics of the rivers,” he said.

Myskowski urged people to heed the advice and warnings of local emergency management officials, who will have the most up-to-date information on any weather-related hazards and road closures.

“Listening to local officials is the key thing to do,” he said.

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Flooded road dangers

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An added concern for meteorologists and emergency managers with today’s storm is that the greatest flooding risks are expected to occur once it is dark outside. This can make it more difficult to spot running water and ponding on roadways.

“The thing that causes the most fatalities in flooding is people driving through flooded roadways,” he said. “Their car gets swept away or they’re unable to get out.”

The NWS has a national campaign centered around urging people not to drive through flooded roads. More information can be found at tinyurl.com/4rfjuwau.

One pitfall of doing so is that it is often difficult — especially in the dark — to judge how deep the water is. People often underestimate how little water it can take to sweep a car away.

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Winter returns to close out week

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Cold air is expected to rush back into the region on the heels of today’s rain. Precipitation is expected to turn over to snow on the back end of this storm system before it exits the area early Thursday morning.

Myskowski said that while those accumulations are expected to be light — between 1 and 2 inches of snow for the Tri-Lakes — the snow may be briefly heavy as soon as it changes over from rain tonight, creating tricky travel conditions for anyone on the road late tonight.

Precipitation is expected to change from rain to snow between 7 and 10 p.m. tonight from west to east. Higher elevations above 3,000 feet may change over earlier, resulting in potentially higher snowfall totals. Myskowski emphasized that the larger rivers will continue rising for some time after the rain stops and the air temperatures are once again below freezing.

Lake effect snow is expected for western portions of the Tri-Lakes area on Thursday and Friday. Similar to last week, the highest accumulations within the Tri-Lakes region are expected to occur across western Franklin County, with 4 to 8 inches expected, Lower amounts — between 2 and 4 inches — are expected for eastern Franklin and western Essex Counties by the end of Friday. Higher amounts may be possible in more persistent lake effect snow bands. It is too early as of press time Tuesday evening to predict where those may occur.