SARANAC LAKE — A record number of Americans are slated to travel for Thanksgiving, according to projections from AAA.

The organization estimates 79.9 million people across the country will travel at least 50 miles from their home to celebrate Thanksgiving between Tuesday and next Monday. This marks an increase from last year’s 78.2 million during the same timeframe, according to AAA’s website. They add that it is the busiest travel period of the year.

The group cites cheaper gas prices as one of the reasons for the increase. Of the total, 71.7 million — or nearly 90% — will travel by automobile.

The national average price per gallon at press time on Tuesday was $3.07, down from $3.26 during last year’s Thanksgiving Day, according to AAA. Locally, prices at the pump are higher, with several gas stations around Saranac Lake reporting prices of $3.45 per gallon, similar to surrounding villages.

With so many taking to the roads, weather conditions will take on an increased importance — and impact — throughout the next several days. Conditions look most favorable for traveling locally and across the Northeast today, according to the National Weather Service’s Burlington, Vermont office, which serves northern New York.

The only weather-related travel concern today is the possibility of scattered lake-effect snow showers during the morning, particularly across southwestern Franklin, northern Hamilton and southern St. Lawrence Counties.

Impacts from this appear, as of press time Tuesday, to be limited. The National Weather Service notes that accumulations will likely be light — with only a dusting to 2 inches forecast.

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Thanksgiving storm

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Conditions are expected to become trickier for those traveling on the holiday. A storm system is expected to track along the East Coast, bringing snow to the Tri-Lakes area and a mix of rain and snow to the Champlain Valley, Capital Region and Hudson Valley.

Precipitation is expected to begin in the early morning Thursday and last most of the day, moving from southwest to northeast.

There is uncertainty as to how much snowfall will occur, and where the heaviest zone of accumulation will be. As of press time Tuesday, the Tri-Lakes area was expected to see between 2 to 4 inches of snow, with higher amounts — closer to 6 inches — for central and southern Vermont, western Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine, as well as elevations above 1,200 feet in central and southeastern New York.

The National Weather Service emphasizes that these totals are subject to change, with a less likely but not out-of-the-question scenario for a stronger storm, which could further complicate travel for people traveling southeast of the Tri-Lakes on Thursday.

“All said and done, we cannot completely discount this solution, which would bring snowfall in the 6 to 12 plus inch range to southern Vermont, with banded locally heavier snowfall. Stay tuned as we continue to fine-tune the details,” NWS Burlington wrote in its forecast discussion posted at 3:30 p.m. Tuesday.

For their latest forecasts, visit weather.gov/btv.

Regardless of how much snow the storm deposits, there is high confidence that the storm will move quickly, exiting the Northeast by early Friday morning. Weather conditions are forecast to be calm Friday through Monday for most of the Northeast, especially areas south and east of the Tri-Lakes region.

The significant exception to this will be around Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, where heavy lake effect snow bands are forecast to set up in the wake of the Thanksgiving storm’s passage.

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Weekend lake effect snow

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Lake effect snow occurs as cold air blows over the relatively warmer lake waters, picking up moisture and depositing it as snow downwind of the waterbody. Lake effect snow storms tend to be hyper-localized in their impacts, as the snow falls in narrow but intense bands. This often produces sharp gradients in snowfall amounts.

The result can be tricky and suddenly changing travel conditions, with weather ranging from blue skies to blinding whiteouts over the span of a few miles.

As of press time on Tuesday, the lake effect was forecasted to ramp up beginning Friday morning east of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. Winter storm watches are in effect for Jefferson, Oswego and Lewis counties for the possibility of “a significant long-duration lake effect snow event,” Friday through Monday according to the National Weather Service’s Buffalo office, which serves those areas.

The Buffalo office notes that it is still too early to figure out where within those counties the heaviest snowfall will occur, but that motorists should expect significant delays during that time if traveling through those counties, with road closures possible.

While the heaviest lake effect snow looks to be west of the Tri-Lakes region, the outer periphery of the snow bands may clip southwestern Franklin County and the western High Peaks, resulting in lesser but still potentially disruptive travel conditions. Meteorologists are expected to have a better idea of lake effect snow impacts and accumulations by Friday.

State Route 3 and Interstate 81 are common corridors for travel between the Tri-Lakes and western New York. People planning on traveling through that area over the weekend should stay up to date with the latest forecast and road conditions, and consider possible alternative routes around the significant snows.